The objective of this course is to provide the participants with the essential economic forecasting knowledge and skills that are relevant for business success. By the end of this course, the participants will be able to:

• Identify and explain the key concepts and principles of economic forecasting, such as data, models, techniques, accuracy, uncertainty, etc.
• Apply the economic forecasting way of thinking to analyze the behavior and decisions of economic agents and policymakers
• Understand the different types of economic forecasting methods, such as qualitative vs quantitative, univariate vs multivariate, deterministic vs stochastic, etc., and their advantages and disadvantages
• Recognize the role and impact of economic forecasting on business planning, strategy, performance, and risk management
• Evaluate the benefits and costs of various economic forecasting applications, such as GDP growth, inflation, unemployment, interest rates, exchange rates, etc., for business

This course is designed for professionals who want to learn or refresh their knowledge of economic forecasting and its relevance to business. It is suitable for anyone who works in or interacts with the business sector, such as managers, entrepreneurs, consultants, analysts, marketers, accountants, lawyers, etc.

• Taking this course will help the participants to:
  • Develop a solid foundation and understanding of economic forecasting and its importance for business
  • Enhance their critical thinking and problem-solving skills
  • Improve their decision-making and strategic planning abilities
  • Increase their awareness and appreciation of the economic environment and its challenges and opportunities for business
  • Develop their confidence and competence in applying economic forecasting concepts and tools to real-world business situations

Day One:

Introduction to Economic Forecasting and Data

• What is economic forecasting and why is it important for business?
• The economic forecasting problem: prediction vs explanation vs prescription
• The economic forecasting way of thinking: rationality, expectations, and learning
• The concept of data: sources, types, and quality
• The analysis of data: descriptive statistics, trends, cycles, and seasonality

Day Two:

Economic Forecasting Methods: How They Make Predictions

• What are economic forecasting methods and how do they make predictions?
• The types of economic forecasting methods: qualitative vs quantitative, univariate vs multivariate, deterministic vs stochastic
• The examples of qualitative methods: surveys, opinion polls, expert opinions, etc.
• The examples of quantitative methods: trend extrapolation, smoothing techniques, regression analysis, etc.
• The comparison of economic forecasting methods: accuracy vs simplicity vs timeliness vs reliability

Day Three:

Economic Forecasting Models: How They Capture Economic Relationships

• What are economic forecasting models and how do they capture economic relationships?
• The concept of economic forecasting models: definition, objectives, and features
• The types of economic forecasting models: static vs dynamic, linear vs nonlinear, single-equation vs system-of-equations
• The examples of economic forecasting models: simple macroeconomic model, IS-LM model, AD-AS model, etc.
• The estimation and evaluation of economic forecasting models: parameter estimation, model testing, model selection, etc.

Day Four:

Economic Forecasting Techniques: How They Handle Uncertainty and Complexity

• What are economic forecasting techniques and how do they handle uncertainty and complexity?
• The concept of uncertainty and complexity in economic forecasting: sources, types, and measurement
• The types of economic forecasting techniques: deterministic vs probabilistic, scenario analysis vs sensitivity analysis, etc.
• The examples of deterministic techniques: trend projection, moving average, exponential smoothing, etc.
• The examples of probabilistic techniques: Monte Carlo simulation, bootstrapping, Bayesian inference, etc.

Day Five:

Economic Forecasting Applications: How They Affect Business Decisions

• What are some practical applications of economic forecasting for business?
• How to use economic forecasting concepts and tools to analyze business problems and scenarios related to the economy and its future
• How to use economic forecasting concepts and tools to evaluate business opportunities and threats related to the economy and its future
• How to use economic forecasting concepts and tools to design business strategies and plans related to the economy and its future

To enhance learning and practical application of concepts, the training course will use a combination of interactive lectures, case studies, group discussions, practical exercises, and real-world examples. Participants will also get the chance to collaborate on group projects and create action plans adapted to the needs of their respective organizations.